Costco's fiscal 2026resolves by 2026-10-15
Will Costco report total revenue of at least 295 billion dollars for fiscal 2026 (the year ending August 30, 2026)?
Probability it resolves YES50%
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Historical cases work because their outcomes resolved. Live judgment has to earn the same honesty the hard way: a resolvable question, a committed probability, a deadline that calls you back, and a score you cannot argue with. Nothing pays out at commit; the grade arrives with the resolution.
Commit a probability before the deadline. Updates are allowed and logged; the final call is what gets scored.
Will Costco report total revenue of at least 295 billion dollars for fiscal 2026 (the year ending August 30, 2026)?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Will the BEA advance estimate of US real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2026 come in at or above 2.0 percent, annualized?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Will the Freddie Mac weekly survey print an average 30 year fixed mortgage rate below 6.00 percent at least once on or before December 31, 2026?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Will NAR report existing home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.5 million or higher for any single month from July through November 2026?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
After the final scheduled FOMC meeting of 2026, will the upper bound of the federal funds target range be at or below 3.75 percent?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Will core PCE inflation fall below 3.0 percent year over year in any month reported through December 2026?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Will the US unemployment rate print at or above 4.5 percent in any month from July 2026 through November 2026?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Will the net percentage of banks tightening standards on commercial and industrial loans to large and middle-market firms turn negative in either the July 2026 or the October 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey?
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.