Costco's fiscal 2026resolves by 2026-10-15
Will Costco report total revenue of at least 295 billion dollars for fiscal 2026 (the year ending August 30, 2026)?
Probability it resolves YES50%
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Vol. I — Est. 2024
The forecast log
Historical cases work because their outcomes resolved. Live judgment has to earn the same honesty the hard way: a resolvable question, a committed probability, a deadline that calls you back, and a score you cannot argue with. Nothing pays out at commit; the grade arrives with the resolution.
Open questions
Commit a probability before the deadline. Updates are allowed and logged; the final call is what gets scored.
The Q3 growth printresolves by 2026-11-10
Will the BEA advance estimate of US real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2026 come in at or above 2.0 percent, annualized?
Probability it resolves YES50%
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
The mortgage rate thresholdresolves by 2026-12-31
Will the Freddie Mac weekly survey print an average 30 year fixed mortgage rate below 6.00 percent at least once on or before December 31, 2026?
Probability it resolves YES50%
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Existing home sales wake upresolves by 2026-12-31
Will NAR report existing home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.5 million or higher for any single month from July through November 2026?
Probability it resolves YES50%
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.
Where the Fed lands the yearresolves by 2026-12-31
After the final scheduled FOMC meeting of 2026, will the upper bound of the federal funds target range be at or below 3.75 percent?
Probability it resolves YES50%
1 to 99. Certainty is not on offer.