Vol. I — Est. 2024
Cyclical vs secular decline
A falling number can be a downswing that mean-reverts or a structural decline that never comes back; they price completely differently.
The question that settles it
What would have to be true for this number to return to its old level, and is anything structural standing in the way?
When it breaks
Cycles can hide secular decline inside them (each peak lower than the last), so one recovery is not proof the decline was cyclical.
Where it gets exercised
2 drills in the stream · 1 recall variation in Anamnesis